Wednesday, June 29, 2011

10 Cities That Will Take A Decade To Recover From The Recession: 24/7 Wall St.

First Posted: 06-27-11 12:22 PM | Updated: 06-27-11 12:22 PM

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24/7 Wall St.: The Great Recession officially began in December 2007 and ended in July 2009. This doesn’t mean that the economy has returned to where it was before the steepest downturn since the Great Depression and may not for years. According to a recent report by IHS Global Insight, employment is not expected to return to its pre-recession peak until 2014.
To be sure, parts of the U.S. are recovering. Experts expect the economy to grow an average of 3% in the second half of this year. Thirty metropolitan areas will have reached their pre-recession peaks by the end of 2011. More than half of the nation’s 363 metropolitan areas are expected to return to their employment peaks by 2014 or before. Others are not so lucky.
The IHS report lists 37 metropolitan areas which are not expected to return to peak employment until after 2021. These areas are facing a “Lost Decade.” Some may never fully recover, although it’s probably useless to try to predict what may happen a decade or more from today.
One trait shared by most of these troubled cities is that they were built on declining industries that will never regain their earlier glory days. Many of these metropolitan areas are part of the “Rust Belt,” an area covering portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest that was once an international center for heavy manufacturing. Cities such as Canton and Youngstown, Ohio were once hubs of the steel industry. Detroit and Flint, of course, were at the heart of the US automobile industry. These areas were decimated by the recession and some have unemployment rates in the double digits. Unlike other parts of the country, they have not been able to replace the old manufacturers with new businesses. According to IHS, unemployment has dropped in many of these areas since the worst parts of the recession, but “the current surge in manufacturing payrolls is not anticipated to last, and by the latter part of the decade the sector is expected to be in secular decline again.”
Some cities are forced to address problems beyond manufacturing, yet in the end they face the same results. Atlantic City’s gaming industry has lost its previous strength due to increasing competition from neighboring states such as Pennsylvania which have legalized gaming in recent years. Hickory, North Carolina, was once a major center for furniture production. Many jobs there have since been sent overseas, causing textile mills to close down and workers to be laid-off.
The ten American cities discussed in this article were chosen for the large sizes of their workforces and the fact that they are not expected to have recoveries to their pre-recession employment rates until after 2021. They have lost the industries which once made them prosperous and they will probably never get them back.
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> Change in employment 2001-2011: -10.1% > Population: 404,422 > Unemployment: 9.3% > Poverty level: 12.3% > Median income: $44,799 Like many of the cities on this list, Canton was once a powerful industrial city but has since come on hard times. Major employers, such as LTV Steel and The Hoover Company, have either closed down or moved away from the city. Between 2000 and 2010, the city lost just under 10% of its population. The city's economy is now becoming more service-based, although it will be hard to replace the number of jobs which were once provided by the steel and iron industry.
> Change in employment 2001-2011: -10.1% > Population: 404,422 > Unemployment: 9.3% > Poverty level: 12.3% > Median income: $44,799 Like many of the cities on this list, Canton was once a powerful industrial city but has since come on hard times. Major employers, such as LTV Steel and The Hoover Company, have either closed down or moved away from the city. Between 2000 and 2010, the city lost just under 10% of its population. The city's economy is now becoming more service-based, although it will be hard to replace the number of jobs which were once provided by the steel and iron industry.
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> Change in employment 2001-2011: -10.1% > Population: 404,422 > Unemployment: 9.3% > Poverty level: 12.3% > Median income: $44,799 Like many of the cities on this list, Canton was once a powerful industrial city but has since come on hard times. Major employers, such as LTV Steel and The Hoover Company, have either closed down or moved away from the city. Between 2000 and 2010, the city lost just under 10% of its population. The city's economy is now becoming more service-based, although it will be hard to replace the number of jobs which were once provided by the steel and iron industry.
> Change in employment from peak: -16% > Population: 425,417 > Unemployment: 11.7% > Poverty level: 11.7% > Median income: $55,578 Although Nevada was one of 24 states to see a decrease in unemployment this past May, unemployment increased in Reno. The city's economy relies on gaming and tourism, two industries which have been hit extremely hard by the recession. Additionally, about "25% of the [city's] workforce is employed in the fields of construction, manufacturing, transportation, communications, public utilities, and finance related services," according to Reno's website. These sectors cannot flourish without the development produced by gaming within the city. It will now take more than a decade for the 36,000 jobs lost in the metropolitan area during the recession to return to the area, according to IHS
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> Change in employment 2001-2011: -10.1% > Population: 404,422 > Unemployment: 9.3% > Poverty level: 12.3% > Median income: $44,799 Like many of the cities on this list, Canton was once a powerful industrial city but has since come on hard times. Major employers, such as LTV Steel and The Hoover Company, have either closed down or moved away from the city. Between 2000 and 2010, the city lost just under 10% of its population. The city's economy is now becoming more service-based, although it will be hard to replace the number of jobs which were once provided by the steel and iron industry.
> Change in employment 2001-2011: -15.8% > Population: 425,790 > Unemployment: 10.8% > Poverty level: 17.3% > Median income: $44,376 Flint is another city which has struggled due to the decline of the US auto industry. In this way, the city's problems cannot be fully attributed to the recession -- the US was already losing market share to Japanese auto companies before 2007. In 1960, General Motors, which was started in Flint, employed 80,000 people there. Today, it employs fewer than 8,000. Home values have dropped 10% in the last 12 months, and the city has a vacancy rate of 14%.
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> Change in employment 2001-2011: -10.1% > Population: 404,422 > Unemployment: 9.3% > Poverty level: 12.3% > Median income: $44,799 Like many of the cities on this list, Canton was once a powerful industrial city but has since come on hard times. Major employers, such as LTV Steel and The Hoover Company, have either closed down or moved away from the city. Between 2000 and 2010, the city lost just under 10% of its population. The city's economy is now becoming more service-based, although it will be hard to replace the number of jobs which were once provided by the steel and iron industry.
> Change in employment 2001-2011: -15.8% > Population: 4,296,250 > Unemployment: 11.1% > Poverty level: 14.2% > Median income: $52,954 Detroit was once one of the country's largest and most industrious cities. Since 2005, the Detroit-Warren-Livonia area experienced a loss of 323,400 jobs. The recession was particularly hard on the area. As it is located at the heart of the nation's auto industry, The Motor City was devastated by the Chapter 11 filings of GM and Chrysler. Although lower now, unemployment almost reached 30% in late 2009.
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> Change in employment 2001-2011: -10.1% > Population: 404,422 > Unemployment: 9.3% > Poverty level: 12.3% > Median income: $44,799 Like many of the cities on this list, Canton was once a powerful industrial city but has since come on hard times. Major employers, such as LTV Steel and The Hoover Company, have either closed down or moved away from the city. Between 2000 and 2010, the city lost just under 10% of its population. The city's economy is now becoming more service-based, although it will be hard to replace the number of jobs which were once provided by the steel and iron industry.
> Change in employment 2001-2011: -13.6% > Population: 365,497 > Unemployment: 11.7% > Poverty level: 14.4% > Median income: $40,181 Unemployment in Hickory, NC, soared from 2% to 16% during the recession, according to USA Today. The jobless rate has since decreased to 11.7%, although this is still significantly higher than the national average of 9.1%. The area's economy is largely based on the production of furniture and fiber optics. Both industries have seen mass layoffs in recent years. According to an article in the Washington Post, "the region has lost more of its jobs to international competition than just about anywhere else in the nation."
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> Change in employment 2001-2011: -10.1% > Population: 404,422 > Unemployment: 9.3% > Poverty level: 12.3% > Median income: $44,799 Like many of the cities on this list, Canton was once a powerful industrial city but has since come on hard times. Major employers, such as LTV Steel and The Hoover Company, have either closed down or moved away from the city. Between 2000 and 2010, the city lost just under 10% of its population. The city's economy is now becoming more service-based, although it will be hard to replace the number of jobs which were once provided by the steel and iron industry.
> Change in employment 2001-2011: -12.1% > Population: 651,429 > Unemployment: 9.4% > Poverty level: 15.4% > Median income: $45,657 Toledo is the last of four metropolitan areas within Ohio to be included on this list. Toledo is a major center for production of auto parts and is home to major GM and Chrysler plants. The auto industry was one of the industries hit worst by the recession, and from its peak Toledo lost about 40,500 jobs. Employment has gotten somewhat better over the last few months, yet the road to recovery is still quite bumpy for the auto industry. In April 2011, 3,400 jobs in the industry were lost nationally, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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> Change in employment 2001-2011: -10.1% > Population: 404,422 > Unemployment: 9.3% > Poverty level: 12.3% > Median income: $44,799 Like many of the cities on this list, Canton was once a powerful industrial city but has since come on hard times. Major employers, such as LTV Steel and The Hoover Company, have either closed down or moved away from the city. Between 2000 and 2010, the city lost just under 10% of its population. The city's economy is now becoming more service-based, although it will be hard to replace the number of jobs which were once provided by the steel and iron industry.
> Change in employment 2001-2011: -11.5% > Population: 274,549 > Unemployment: 12.5% > Poverty level: 10.6% > Median income: $54,934 Atlantic City's tourism-driven economy has been hurt in two ways. First, the recession has caused revenues to nosedive at the city's casinos, as people have less money to gamble with. Second, there is growing competition from neighboring states such as Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut, and Maryland, which have legalized gaming in recent years. As a result, it is unlikely Atlantic City will see the traffic that it once did when the economy returns to pre-recession levels.
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> Change in employment 2001-2011: -10.1% > Population: 404,422 > Unemployment: 9.3% > Poverty level: 12.3% > Median income: $44,799 Like many of the cities on this list, Canton was once a powerful industrial city but has since come on hard times. Major employers, such as LTV Steel and The Hoover Company, have either closed down or moved away from the city. Between 2000 and 2010, the city lost just under 10% of its population. The city's economy is now becoming more service-based, although it will be hard to replace the number of jobs which were once provided by the steel and iron industry.
> Change in employment 2001-2011: -11% > Population: 565,773 > Unemployment: 9.1% > Poverty level: 15.5% > Median income: $40,734 Youngstown, OH, is a former steel city and is the center of an area called "Steel Valley", the largest part of which was Pittsburgh. The disappearance of the steel mills has left the city's economy dependent on health care and education, notably Youngstown State University -- the city's largest employer. According to one local paper, the city has more than 4,500 vacant structures and a shrinking population.
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> Change in employment 2001-2011: -10.1% > Population: 404,422 > Unemployment: 9.3% > Poverty level: 12.3% > Median income: $44,799 Like many of the cities on this list, Canton was once a powerful industrial city but has since come on hard times. Major employers, such as LTV Steel and The Hoover Company, have either closed down or moved away from the city. Between 2000 and 2010, the city lost just under 10% of its population. The city's economy is now becoming more service-based, although it will be hard to replace the number of jobs which were once provided by the steel and iron industry.
> Change in employment 2001-2011: -10.9% > Population: 319,224 > Unemployment: 9.1% > Poverty level: 13.7% > Median income: $44,579 South Bend-Mishawaka was once a major industrial hub, known primarily for manufacturing automotive parts. Most employment in the area is now in education, health care, and small businesses. Unfortunately, these are among the sectors which have shed the most jobs in recent years. According to numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the private educational and health services sector lost 1,500 jobs between 2009 and 2010 -- the most out of any industry. The sector to lose the second largest number of jobs was government, which includes public schools and hospitals.
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> Change in employment 2001-2011: -10.1% > Population: 404,422 > Unemployment: 9.3% > Poverty level: 12.3% > Median income: $44,799 Like many of the cities on this list, Canton was once a powerful industrial city but has since come on hard times. Major employers, such as LTV Steel and The Hoover Company, have either closed down or moved away from the city. Between 2000 and 2010, the city lost just under 10% of its population. The city's economy is now becoming more service-based, although it will be hard to replace the number of jobs which were once provided by the steel and iron industry.
> Change in employment 2001-2011: -10.3% > Population: 841,502 > Unemployment: 9% > Poverty level: 13.3% > Median income: $47,145 At the turn of the century, Dayton generated more patents per capita than any other U.S. city. Dayton was a major manufacturing center and was also home to a number of GM plants. Currently, things are not going as well. According to George Zeller, a Cleveland-based economic research analyst, in the Dayton Daily News, "Dayton is in the worst recession that it has ever seen since the Great Depression." As manufacturing continues to decline in the area, health and education services seem to be the only hope for employment.
The Best and Worst Cities for Recession Recovery
by Joshua Zumbrun Thursday, June 11, 2009
Cities poised for a rebound--and cities with a long slog ahead.
© Geoffrey Hammond/iStockphoto
Austin-Round Rock, Texas
The three most important things in real estate: location, location, location.
It's true for recovery from a real estate bubble too. Overall, many economists expect the national economy to return to growth later in 2009, perhaps as soon as this summer. But that won't be the case everywhere. While some cities are poised for a quick rebound, others face a slog to recovery that could take years.
Poised for swift recovery are many Texas cities, such as Austin, San Antonio, Dallas and McAllen. These areas did not see the massive real estate bubble that formed in states like California, Nevada and Florida. The economy is diverse, with heavy growth coming from education and health care in recent years.
Many of the cities with the longest road to recovery are California cities, where home prices rocketed out of control, and entire economies were supported largely by a real estate bubble. Fresno, Modesto, Salinas, Bakersfield, Stockton and Los Angeles all saw home prices soar to unsustainable levels and then begin their inevitable plunge. The collapse of the housing markets pushed unemployment rates in these cities above 10%.
Even as a flood of foreclosures makes home prices look affordable again, a sign that some of the worst real estate markets may be finding their bottom, it will still take years for unemployment rates as high as 16.8% in Modesto or 15.5% in Fresno to return to healthy levels.
To find the 10 cities that look best poised for recovery (and the 10 cities likely looking at the longest climb back), we examined estimates from data provider Moody's Economy.com of the projected gross domestic product of metropolitan areas across the U.S., as well as unemployment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and home prices, incomes and affordability data from the National Association of Home Builders. Because, in general, healthy cities were not victims of as severe a housing collapse, home prices were not used in ranking the cities poised for recovery.

The analysis also shows the importance of a city's economic make-up. Manufacturing has been battered by the recession, leaving cities like Detroit and Flint, Mich., or Youngstown, Ohio, with bad unemployment and a changing economy that's unlikely to replace the lost jobs. Moody's projects the economy in Flint, for example, will decrease by 16% from the start of recession to the end of 2010. (One commonly cited rule of thumb for depression is a decline of 10%.) Flint might never return to its original size.
New York City, too, once the capital of finance, is now saddled with Wall Street-induced unemployment and homes that are completely unaffordable for most of the region's residents. The NAHB's Housing Opportunity Index reports that only 14% of homes in the New York-White Plains-Wayne area are affordable on the area's median income--by far the least affordable region measured by NAHB.
Cities with robust technology sectors are poised for stronger recoveries than manufacturing or finance centers. Cities with high-tech capabilities like Seattle, Huntsville, Ala., or Boulder, Colo., could see quick recovery in coming months.
The Best Cities for Recession Recovery
1. Austin-Round Rock, Texas
Current GDP: $72.4 billion End of 2010: $77.7 billion (projected) Unemployment: 5.8%
From now to the end of 2010, the economy of Austin is projected to grow by $5 billion, and unemployment has stayed relatively subdued. The city's diverse economy, home to Dell, the University of Texas and the Texas state government, has kept the economy strong. Forbes.com also recently ranked Austin the Best Big City for Jobs.
2. Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.
Current GDP: $13.9 billion End of 2010: $14.5 billion (projected) Unemployment: 5.0%
What better way to sit pretty during a recession than to have the ultimate recession-proof company headquartered in your neighborhood. The Fayetteville region is home to Bentonville, Ark.-based Wal-Mart. Wall Street may be struggling, but the presence of the world's most powerful retailer keeps northwest Arkansas' business community humming.
3. Boulder, Colo.
Current GDP: $15.6 billion End of 2010: $16.3 billion (projected) Unemployment: 5.7%
The University of Colorado provides an abundance of stable jobs for the region. Boulder is also home to a number of high-tech laboratories. Moody's projects the economy of Boulder will dip less than 1% before growth resumes in the first half of this year.
Courtesy of the Huntsville Convention & Visitors Bureau
4. Huntsville, Ala.
Current GDP: $16.1 billion End of 2010: $17.2 billion (projected) Unemployment: 6.1%
In a recession characterized by battered housing, banking and manufacturing markets, having an economy with a heavy focus on technology helps. Huntsville is home to one of the country's largest research parks and a major NASA center (not to mention Space Camp).
5. San Antonio, Texas
Current GDP: $66.3 billion End of 2010: $68.4 billion (projected) Unemployment: 5.4%
San Antonio's rapidly growing health care and education sectors have kept unemployment low in San Antonio. Moody's projects recession will not entirely pass the Alamo by, but the GDP of the city will barely dip before returning to growth in the third quarter of this year.
The Worst Cities for Recession Recovery
© Mark Scheuern/Alamy
1. Flint, Michigan
GDP at start of recession: $10.96 billion End of 2010: $9.25 billion (-15.6%, projected) Unemployment: 14.2% Median home/median salary ratio: 1.5
Nowhere has been hurt by the recession more than Flint. Once an automotive center, the city's economy is projected to shrink by a Depression-like -15.6% from the start of the recession to the end of 2010. (A 10% decline of GDP is sometimes cited as a rule of thumb for depression.) Moody's estimates that Flint will not recover to its pre-recession size in the next decade.
2. Fresno, Calif.
GDP at start of recession: $30.1 billion End of 2010: $29.4 billion (-2.5%, projected) Unemployment: 15.5% Median home/median salary ratio: 3.4
One of California's housing bubble cities that has seen jobs disappear along with collapsing home prices. Unemployment has soared over 15% in Fresno, as new home construction and realty (except for foreclosures) have lost their momentum. Moody's projects the economy will not return to its old size until the third quarter of 2011. Although home prices have plummeted, they're still not cheap.
© Shutterstock
3. Detroit-Warren-Livonia, Mich.
GDP at start of recession: $160 billion End of 2010: $149.8 billion (-6.4%, projected) Unemployment: 13.6% Median home/median salary ratio: 1.7
The collapse of General Motors and Chrysler has not been good for Detroit. Even if the countries emerge from bankruptcy newly triumphant, it will take a long time to reabsorb the ranks of the unemployed. On the plus side, those finding stable employment can take advantage of great home prices. Moody's projects the city's economy will not find a new peak for three years, by the second quarter of 2012.
4. Modesto, Calif.
GDP at start of recession: $14.5 billion End of 2010: $14.2 billion (-1.8%, projected) Unemployment: 16.8% Median home/median salary ratio: 2.8
This California housing hot spot has seen unemployment soar as the bubble deflates, creating one of the highest rates of unemployment for any big city in the country. Home prices have fallen so far, however, that Modesto is starting to look affordable again.
© Craig Lovell/Eagle Visions Photography/Alamy
5. Salinas, Calif.
GDP at start of recession: $13.8 billion End of 2010: $13.4 billion (-2%, projected) Unemployment: 11.7% Median home/median salary ratio: 3.8
The Salinas area, south of San Francisco along the coast, saw a tremendous surge in home prices and subsequent collapse. Prices are still high, far out of price ranges for many of the incomes earned by the agriculture that sustains much of the region.
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To find the 10 cities poised for recovery, and the 10 cities with longest road to recovery, we used data on gross domestic product from Moody's Economy.com, unemployment and employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, home prices and affordability from the National Association of Homebuilders, and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Data are for Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Because, in general, healthy cities were not victims of as severe a housing collapse, home prices were not used in ranking the cities poised for recovery.

The Best and Worst Cities for Recession Recovery

by Joshua Zumbrun
Thursday, June 11, 2009


Cities poised for a rebound--and cities with a long slog ahead.


© Geoffrey Hammond/iStockphoto
Austin-Round Rock, Texas

The three most important things in real estate: location, location, location.

It's true for recovery from a real estate bubble too. Overall, many economists expect the national economy to return to growth later in 2009, perhaps as soon as this summer. But that won't be the case everywhere. While some cities are poised for a quick rebound, others face a slog to recovery that could take years.


Poised for swift recovery are many Texas cities, such as Austin, San Antonio, Dallas and McAllen. These areas did not see the massive real estate bubble that formed in states like California, Nevada and Florida. The economy is diverse, with heavy growth coming from education and health care in recent years.

Many of the cities with the longest road to recovery are California cities, where home prices rocketed out of control, and entire economies were supported largely by a real estate bubble. Fresno, Modesto, Salinas, Bakersfield, Stockton and Los Angeles all saw home prices soar to unsustainable levels and then begin their inevitable plunge. The collapse of the housing markets pushed unemployment rates in these cities above 10%.

Even as a flood of foreclosures makes home prices look affordable again, a sign that some of the worst real estate markets may be finding their bottom, it will still take years for unemployment rates as high as 16.8% in Modesto or 15.5% in Fresno to return to healthy levels.

To find the 10 cities that look best poised for recovery (and the 10 cities likely looking at the longest climb back), we examined estimates from data provider Moody's Economy.com of the projected gross domestic product of metropolitan areas across the U.S., as well as unemployment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and home prices, incomes and affordability data from the National Association of Home Builders. Because, in general, healthy cities were not victims of as severe a housing collapse, home prices were not used in ranking the cities poised for recovery.



The analysis also shows the importance of a city's economic make-up. Manufacturing has been battered by the recession, leaving cities like Detroit and Flint, Mich., or Youngstown, Ohio, with bad unemployment and a changing economy that's unlikely to replace the lost jobs. Moody's projects the economy in Flint, for example, will decrease by 16% from the start of recession to the end of 2010. (One commonly cited rule of thumb for depression is a decline of 10%.) Flint might never return to its original size.

New York City, too, once the capital of finance, is now saddled with Wall Street-induced unemployment and homes that are completely unaffordable for most of the region's residents. The NAHB's Housing Opportunity Index reports that only 14% of homes in the New York-White Plains-Wayne area are affordable on the area's median income--by far the least affordable region measured by NAHB.

Cities with robust technology sectors are poised for stronger recoveries than manufacturing or finance centers. Cities with high-tech capabilities like Seattle, Huntsville, Ala., or Boulder, Colo., could see quick recovery in coming months.

The Best Cities for Recession Recovery

1. Austin-Round Rock, Texas

Current GDP: $72.4 billion
End of 2010: $77.7 billion (projected)
Unemployment: 5.8%

From now to the end of 2010, the economy of Austin is projected to grow by $5 billion, and unemployment has stayed relatively subdued. The city's diverse economy, home to Dell, the University of Texas and the Texas state government, has kept the economy strong. Forbes.com also recently ranked Austin the Best Big City for Jobs.


2. Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.

Current GDP: $13.9 billion
End of 2010: $14.5 billion (projected)
Unemployment: 5.0%

What better way to sit pretty during a recession than to have the ultimate recession-proof company headquartered in your neighborhood. The Fayetteville region is home to Bentonville, Ark.-based Wal-Mart. Wall Street may be struggling, but the presence of the world's most powerful retailer keeps northwest Arkansas' business community humming.

3. Boulder, Colo.

Current GDP: $15.6 billion
End of 2010: $16.3 billion (projected)
Unemployment: 5.7%

The University of Colorado provides an abundance of stable jobs for the region. Boulder is also home to a number of high-tech laboratories. Moody's projects the economy of Boulder will dip less than 1% before growth resumes in the first half of this year.


Courtesy of the Huntsville Convention & Visitors Bureau

4. Huntsville, Ala.

Current GDP: $16.1 billion
End of 2010: $17.2 billion (projected)
Unemployment: 6.1%

In a recession characterized by battered housing, banking and manufacturing markets, having an economy with a heavy focus on technology helps. Huntsville is home to one of the country's largest research parks and a major NASA center (not to mention Space Camp).

5. San Antonio, Texas

Current GDP: $66.3 billion
End of 2010: $68.4 billion (projected)
Unemployment: 5.4%

San Antonio's rapidly growing health care and education sectors have kept unemployment low in San Antonio. Moody's projects recession will not entirely pass the Alamo by, but the GDP of the city will barely dip before returning to growth in the third quarter of this year.


The Worst Cities for Recession Recovery


© Mark Scheuern/Alamy

1. Flint, Michigan

GDP at start of recession: $10.96 billion
End of 2010: $9.25 billion (-15.6%, projected)
Unemployment: 14.2%
Median home/median salary ratio: 1.5

Nowhere has been hurt by the recession more than Flint. Once an automotive center, the city's economy is projected to shrink by a Depression-like -15.6% from the start of the recession to the end of 2010. (A 10% decline of GDP is sometimes cited as a rule of thumb for depression.) Moody's estimates that Flint will not recover to its pre-recession size in the next decade.

2. Fresno, Calif.

GDP at start of recession: $30.1 billion
End of 2010: $29.4 billion (-2.5%, projected)
Unemployment: 15.5%
Median home/median salary ratio: 3.4

One of California's housing bubble cities that has seen jobs disappear along with collapsing home prices. Unemployment has soared over 15% in Fresno, as new home construction and realty (except for foreclosures) have lost their momentum. Moody's projects the economy will not return to its old size until the third quarter of 2011. Although home prices have plummeted, they're still not cheap.


© Shutterstock

3. Detroit-Warren-Livonia, Mich.

GDP at start of recession: $160 billion
End of 2010: $149.8 billion (-6.4%, projected)
Unemployment: 13.6%
Median home/median salary ratio: 1.7

The collapse of General Motors and Chrysler has not been good for Detroit. Even if the countries emerge from bankruptcy newly triumphant, it will take a long time to reabsorb the ranks of the unemployed. On the plus side, those finding stable employment can take advantage of great home prices. Moody's projects the city's economy will not find a new peak for three years, by the second quarter of 2012.

4. Modesto, Calif.

GDP at start of recession: $14.5 billion
End of 2010: $14.2 billion (-1.8%, projected)
Unemployment: 16.8%
Median home/median salary ratio: 2.8

This California housing hot spot has seen unemployment soar as the bubble deflates, creating one of the highest rates of unemployment for any big city in the country. Home prices have fallen so far, however, that Modesto is starting to look affordable again.


© Craig Lovell/Eagle Visions Photography/Alamy

5. Salinas, Calif.

GDP at start of recession: $13.8 billion
End of 2010: $13.4 billion (-2%, projected)
Unemployment: 11.7%
Median home/median salary ratio: 3.8

The Salinas area, south of San Francisco along the coast, saw a tremendous surge in home prices and subsequent collapse. Prices are still high, far out of price ranges for many of the incomes earned by the agriculture that sustains much of the region.

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To find the 10 cities poised for recovery, and the 10 cities with longest road to recovery, we used data on gross domestic product from Moody's Economy.com, unemployment and employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, home prices and affordability from the National Association of Homebuilders, and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Data are for Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Because, in general, healthy cities were not victims of as severe a housing collapse, home prices were not used in ranking the cities poised for recovery.